NFL matchups and anytime TDs

A sharp friend, in your texts.

Marty does the research on every matchup and every touchdown scorer, then sends you one card: the play, the number it stops at, why, and the TD stack. Wednesday at 8 AM ET for Thursday night, Friday for Sunday and Monday.

Marty's card for JAX at BAL: JAX -9.5, strong, 1 unit, good to -10.5, with a Jakobi Meyers anytime TD.
The research

The homework behind every pick.

A pick is only as good as the research under it. Marty's comes from a model built on two decades of NFL data, so you can make the best picks without spending your morning doing the homework.

Since 2006

Tested against the close

Every game graded against the closing line, so Marty knows which storylines the market already prices in and which it misses.

xTD

Expected touchdowns

What every player's role should produce, from snaps, targets and red-zone work, measured on every game since 2018.

1,000s

Simulations per game

Each game played out thousands of times, so sides, totals and touchdowns are priced together, the way they actually happen.

8 AM

Fresh the morning of

Injury reports, trades, QB news and weather are read the morning the card goes out, then checked against the latest price.

Two reads. One card.

Marty only plays two kinds of bets, and shows you why for each one.

Matchups

How each team is really playing against what the scoreboard says, the spot they're in (off a bye, a short week, back-to-back road trips), QB news, and the number. A side only when it all lines up.

  • Teams running hot or cold against how they've played
  • Morning news checked: injuries, trades, weather
  • Moneyline or spread, and the number where it stops

Anytime TDs

Every player's touchdowns against the touchdowns his role should have produced. The guys running below their expected TDs, on teams expected to score, at a price worth taking.

  • Scored less than his opportunity was worth
  • Role checked: snaps, targets, goal-line work
  • Single bets and small same-game stacks

How it works.

  1. The model runs

    Team ratings, live odds, the injury report and the touchdown board, every slate.

  2. Marty writes the take

    Storylines marked for and against, a lean, the size of each bet, and the TD plays. Or a pass when there's nothing there.

  3. It lands at 8 AM ET

    Wednesday for Thursday night, Friday for Sunday and Monday. By email today; by text soon.

An example card

One screenshot. Everything you need.

Marty's card for Thursday, November 5: the play and its limit, the reasons in a line each, the touchdown plays, and how much of each to bet. Read the full write-up.

Marty's card for JAX at BAL: JAX -9.5, strong, 1 unit, good to -10.5, with a Jakobi Meyers anytime TD.

Start free. Pro comes in December.

Free

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Thursday Night Football, every week.

  • The Thursday card: the side and the TD plays
  • Wednesday at 8 AM ET
Get Thursday's card

Pro

Coming in December
$9.99 /month

Thursday, Sunday and Monday.

  • Everything in Free
  • The Sunday and Monday card, Friday 8 AM ET
  • A read on every game, passes included
  • Every anytime TD play and stack

Questions.

When do the cards come?

Wednesday at 8 AM ET for Thursday night, Friday at 8 AM ET for Sunday and Monday. Early enough to follow the news through the day.

What's a unit?

Your standard bet size, the same every time: many bettors use 1% of their bankroll. A 1u play is one standard bet, 0.5u is half. Marty sizes each play so you never have to guess.

What does "Good to -10.5" mean?

The worst number the play is still worth betting at. If the line moves past it before you bet, pass.

Is it really iMessage?

That's where it's headed: on an iPhone, Marty's card will arrive as an iMessage with the card as an image. Texts aren't live yet, so leave your number to hear the day they start. Email works today.

Whose odds do you use?

DraftKings. Every play lists the number Marty saw and the number where it stops being a bet.

Does Marty pick every game?

No. Some games are a pass, and the card says so.

Who can use it?

Adults 21 and older, in states where sports betting is legal. Marty is research and entertainment, not a guarantee.

How do I stop?

Tap unsubscribe at the bottom of any email, or reply STOP to any text.

Thursday's card is free.

By email today, by text soon. Stop anytime.