Laying 9.5 with JAX against an undrafted rookie QB

Sent Wed, Nov 4, 8:00 AM ET · DraftKings prices

One game, one side: Baltimore is down to its third QB on a short week, and I'm laying it with Jacksonville.

The card2u total

1u JAX -9.5 · Good to -10.5

0.5u Jakobi Meyers anytime TD · Scoring less than his chances say

0.5u Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD + Jakobi Meyers anytime TD · The role carries Tuten

1u is one standard bet; 0.5u is half.

Before you bet

Fagnano's ankle: if Slovis starts, still on JAX, but expect the line to jump

Line hits -11 or worse: stop laying it, pass

Meyers active at 6:45: if he's out, drop both TD plays

JAX @ BAL

STRONGJAX -9.5-110Good to -10.5

Helps the play: Lamar on IR with the thumb, Huntley done for the year
Helps the play: Undrafted rookie Fagnano makes first start, ankle in a brace
Helps the play: BAL lost the last two by 22 and 26
Against the play: JAX off a 42-7 home blowout, road short week: letdown risk
Helps the play: Ratings make it JAX -11 to -11.5, line is 9.5
Lawrence 3-1 ATS on the road in primetime

How it plays out

Jacksonville is the better team by double digits on play and now gets a Ravens offense run by an undrafted rookie on a bad ankle. Baltimore leans on Henry and tries to shorten the game, but once JAX gets up two scores Fagnano has to throw.

The bet

Ratings make it JAX by 11+ before you account for a third-string rookie under center, and the line still sits under 10. I'll lay it to -10.5. Past that, it's a pass.

Anytime TD

Jakobi Meyers: Negative gap, 2 TDs on 3.2 expected. Cleared the injury report.

Bhayshul Tuten: Lead back in a game JAX should control.